Pricing Efficiency of Convertible Bonds in China
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.71222/5apbyb30Keywords:
convertible bonds, conversion options, efficiencyAbstract
The paper examines the pricing efficiency of convertible bonds in China by calculating the relative cheapness of the Chinese convertible bonds from 2012 to 2019. Relative cheapness is measured by the difference between the convertible bond’s implied volatility in conversion options and the stock’s look-back annualized volatility. The results show that cheaper convertible bonds significantly outperform more expensive convertible bonds regarding risk-adjusted performance indicators such as the Sharpe ratio, annualized Sortino ratio, and Return-over-Maximum-Drawdown. A simple long-short strategy sorting bonds using this measure can produce an average monthly return of 1.54%.
References
1. V. Agarwal, W. H. Fung, Y. C. Loon, and N. Y. Naik, "Risk and return in convertible arbitrage: Evidence from the convertible bond market," J. Empir. Finance, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 175–194, 2011, doi: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2010.11.008.
2. M. O. Qarni and S. Gulzar, "Return and volatility spillover across stock markets of China and its major trading partners: evi-dence from Shanghai stock exchange crash," Bus. Econ. Rev., vol. 10, no. 03, pp. 1–20, 2018, doi: 10.22547/BER/10.3.1.
3. F. Black and M. Scholes, "The pricing of options and corporate liabilities," J. Polit. Econ., vol. 81, no. 3, pp. 637–654, 1973, doi: 10.1086/260062.
4. M. J. Brennan and E. S. Schwartz, "Analyzing convertible bonds," J. Financ. Quant. Anal., vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 907–929, 1980, doi: 10.2307/2330567.
5. N. Nakamura, "Valuation of mortgage-backed securities based upon a structural approach," Asia-Pac. Financ. Mark., vol. 8, pp. 259–289, 2001, doi: 10.1023/A:1020621327772.
6. A. De Jong, E. Duca, and M. Dutordoir, "Do convertible bond issuers cater to investor demand?," Financ. Manag., vol. 42, no. 1, pp. 41–78, 2013, doi: 10.1111/j.1755-053X.2012.01222.x.
7. R. Kazbek, Y. Erlangga, Y. Amanbek, and D. Wei, "Pricing convertible bonds with the penalty TF model using finite element method," Comput. Econ., pp. 1–28, 2024, doi: 10.1007/s10614-024-10625-1.
8. B. D. Grundy, P. Verwijmeren, and A. Yang, "Intermediary frictions and convertible bond pricing," J. Financ. Intermediation, vol. 58, p. 101085, 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.jfi.2024.101085.
9. R. Kazbek, Y. Erlangga, Y. Amanbek, and D. Wei, "Isogeometric analysis for the pricing of financial derivatives with nonlinear models: Convertible bonds and options," arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.08987, 2024, doi: 10.48550/arXiv.2412.08987.
10. J. Prokop, M. Walting, and F. Kahlen, "Are more analysts better? The case of convertible bond announcement effects," Int. Rev. Financ. Anal., vol. 96, p. 103696, 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103696.
11. C. Lewis, B. Munyan, and P. Verwijmeren, "Convertible debt arbitrage crashes revisited," J. Financ. Quant. Anal., vol. 59, no. 4, pp. 1926–1962, 2024, doi: 10.1017/S0022109023000583.
12. S. Gatti and U. Sperl, "An announcement effect in reverse? Evidence from cash‐settled convertible bonds," Eur. Financ. Manag., 2024, doi: 10.1111/eufm.12514.
13. L. Jin, X. Yuan, K. Lu, S. Wang, and Z. Li, "The lead lag relationship between convertible bonds and stocks: a perspective based on trading mechanism," Appl. Econ., pp. 1–13, 2024, doi: 10.1080/00036846.2024.2337815.
14. J. Zhu, C. Wen, and R. Li, "Pricing Chinese convertible bonds with learning-based Monte Carlo simulation model," Axioms, vol. 13, no. 4, p. 218, 2024, doi: 10.3390/axioms13040218.
15. Z. Cen, J. Huang, A. Le, and A. Xu, "Pricing a resettable convertible bond based on decomposition method and PDE models," Results Appl. Math., vol. 21, p. 100423, 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.rinam.2023.100423.
16. A. de Jong and F. Madertoner, "Born of necessity: The introduction of convertible bonds in The Netherlands," Bus. Hist., vol. 66, no. 6, pp. 1412–1441, 2024, doi: 10.1080/00076791.2022.2128110.
17. Y. Wang, "Valuation of convertible bonds based on the Black-Scholes model," in SHS Web Conf., vol. 208, p. 04017, EDP Sciences, 2024, doi: 10.1051/shsconf/202420804017.
18. R. K. Coonjobeharry, D. K. Behera, and N. Thakoor, "Numerical PDE-based pricing of convertible bonds under two-factor models," Contemp. Math., pp. 93–104, 2024, doi: 10.37256/cm.5120243343 .
19. L. Gan, X. Xia, W. Xu, and H. Zhang, "Convertible bond maturity and debt overhang," Int. Rev. Financ. Anal., vol. 95, p. 103410, 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103410.
20. K. H. Park and S. Lee, "Reset feature in convertible bonds: Is it good for the firm?," Asia-Pac. Financ. Mark., pp. 1–21, 2024, doi: 10.1007/s10690-024-09504-4.
21. Y. Liu, "Valuation model of Chinese convertible bonds based on Monte Carlo simulation," arXiv preprint arXiv:2409.06496, 2024, doi: 10.48550/arXiv.2409.06496.